Nuclear ‘Fail-Safe’ Reviews and Risk Reduction Approaches in South Asia
15 Apr 2025 Nobuyasu ABE and Innocentia ATCHAYA
Adil Sultan argues that all nuclear-armed states, including India and Pakistan, must conduct regular nuclear ‘fail-safe’ reviews to build confidence, reduce risks of miscalculation or accidents, and prevent escalation during crises.
On March 9, 2022, a supersonic missile landed inside the Pakistani territory that India claimed later was one of its Brahmos cruise missiles, mistakenly fired due to a technical malfunction. Several senior Pakistani officials, however, disagree with this explanation, believing instead that the launch was intended to test Pakistan’s defence systems. This mutual distrust, stemming from long-standing disputes and a history of military crises, is further exacerbated by growing military asymmetries between India and Pakistan, as well as the perceived ambiguities in their nuclear postures. There is a growing possibility that the integration of new and emerging technologies in their military platforms and nuclear command and control (C2) systems would further increase the chances of miscalculation, and the decisions that may not have been officially sanctioned by the political leadership.
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Kazuko Ito argues that Japan, as the only country to have suffered from nuclear warfare, must take a leading role in preventing nuclear war and achieving a nuclear-free world by joining the TPNW, emphasising the growing need for global nuclear disarmament.
Nuclear ‘Fail-Safe’ Reviews and Risk Reduction Approaches in South Asia
ABE Nobuyasu
Former United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs
Innocentia ATCHAYA
Feminist Researcher; Digital Communications Officer at the British High Commission in India
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APLN+HBS – Regional views on ROK proliferation (digital-com)
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Japanese
On March 9, 2022, a supersonic missile landed inside the Pakistani territory that India claimed later was one of its Brahmos cruise missiles, mistakenly fired due to a technical malfunction. Several senior Pakistani officials, however, disagree with this explanation, believing instead that the launch was intended to test Pakistan’s defence systems. This mutual distrust, stemming from long-standing disputes and a history of military crises, is further exacerbated by growing military asymmetries between India and Pakistan, as well as the perceived ambiguities in their nuclear postures. There is a growing possibility that the integration of new and emerging technologies in their military platforms and nuclear command and control (C2) systems would further increase the chances of miscalculation, and the decisions that may not have been officially sanctioned by the political leadership.
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