Executive summary
How will cross-strait relations evolve under the Lai Ching-Te administration amidst quickly increasing cross-strait tensions? Will Taiwan’s new national leader be able to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait by continuing to abide by the principles of maintaining status quo? This report seeks to analyse how the 2024 presidential election result and the Taiwanese public’s changing views towards its relations with China (and particularly, the unification with China) are likely to affect regional stability, considering recent developments following Lai’s inauguration.
The Taiwanese elections have re-shaped Taiwan’s political landscape, creating a three-party parliament and the first no-majority government in sixteen years. President Lai has a record of pro-independence views, but the new majority in the Legislative Yuan has the potential to balance those views to some extent, and has sought to pursue unofficial dialogues with the Mainland. China has reacted strongly to the election of Lai and sought to influence the election results through military, economic, diplomatic, and disinformation campaigns, and also issued stern warnings at US support for Lai.
